The Stock Market is Down Again - Is This Time Different?
Should I sell my stocks because of the War in Iran?
This is the question on a lot of people's minds after the first 3 months of the year. With the war in Iran drumming up fears – the 3 major stock indices are down a healthy portion - As of 3/30/2026:
• The S&P 500 is down 7.51%
• The NASDAQ is down 10.51%
• Dow Jones is down 6.54%.
This Isn’t New:
Did you know that since 1945 – the Dow Jones has had more than a -5% return 70 times? That’s almost once a year!
This is eerily similar to the start of the year last year – The S&P 500 was down around 15% through April 4th of 2025. Despite this horrible start last year, the S&P 500 ended up showing a positive return around 13% for the year. A 28% swing in less than 9 months!
Selling Out of the Stock Market Can Come at a Major Cost:
The urge to try and time the market can cost you—mightily. Taking your money out of the stock market and parking it in cash –during a sudden market decline can have a negative impact on your portfolio:
• If you missed just the best week in the market (November 28, 2008), your portfolio would have been 17% less than if you would’ve stayed invested.
• Missing the 3-month rebound after March 2020, the best quarterly return since 1997, could’ve cost you 30% of your portfolio’s value. For a $1 million portfolio, that’s a $300,000 mistake.
• Having a fee-only advisor can certainly help you calm the storm and walk you through these times of turmoil – as the cost of making a mistake is huge!
If you look closer at the chart, what do all the date ranges have in common? They come amid turbulent times in the stock market:
• 2008-2009 Financial Crises
• 2020 Covid Decline
Sometimes, the best returns in the stock market come immediately after the worst.
Looking Back: $100,000 in 1970 – “Would you Have Invested in the Stock Market?
Imagine you were given $100,000 in 1970 and told:
“Over the next 55 years, the U.S. will experience wars, recessions, terrorist attacks, natural disasters, a housing collapse, and a global pandemic, that killed millions” - Would you have invested?
If you had placed that $100,000 in a globally diversified portfolio of stocks (U.S. and international), by today it would be worth over $11.7 million.
Tune Out the Noise
I don’t want to downplay the negativity that has surrounded the start of the year in the stock market. It’s incredibly scary to see your portfolio decline in value. However, we’ve seen these things happen before – most recently last year at almost this exact same time! How did the market respond? Tremendously.
Now, I’m not saying that we are going to see a 20%+ turn around in the next 9 months – I certainly hope so, but I wouldn’t guarantee it. This is when it’s incredibly important to stay invested, stay the course, and listen to your trusted fee-only financial advisor to keep you on track towards your goals.
Over the past 100 years, markets—powered by human ingenuity, problem-solving, and productivity—have continued to reward long-term investors, even through tough times.
Regardless of whether this war in Iran will stay or go, companies like Apple will continue making iPhones, Pepsi will keep selling beverages, and Amazon will keep delivering packages. Their focus on growth and profits remains steady, no matter the circumstances.
So yes—this time may feel different, but history suggests the outcome probably won’t be.